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#Documentary about space drop how to
The special lives up to its tagline: How to space quarantine. But when NASA recruited a civilian to fly to space, were they really adequately explaining the odds?ītw the final rate for catastrophic failure of the Shuttle was 1/67.5 (two failures over 135 flights). As they prepare to die, they realize all the pushing has caused the space station to drop into Earths orbit again. Now he’s releasing a 37-minute documentary special about that experience, called Spacedrop. The people who chose to be astronauts, at least some of them would have understood and been ok with those odds. The thing is, those numbers aren't even necessarily a show-stopper. Feynman found that the bulk of the engineers' estimates fell between 1 in 50 and 1 in 200 He then decided to poll the engineers themselves, asking them to write down an anonymous estimate of the odds of shuttle explosion. As the figure itself was beyond belief, Feynman questioned exactly what "necessarily" meant in this context, whether it meant that the figure followed logically from other calculations or that it reflected NASA management's desire to make the numbers fit. Feynman immediately realized that this claim was risible on its face as he described, this assessment of risk would entail that NASA could expect to launch a shuttle every day for the next 274 years while suffering, on average, only one accident.įeynman was the fact that NASA claimed that the risk of catastrophic failure was "necessarily" 1 in 10 5. (opens in new tab) Journey to the Edge of the Universe is a classic Nat Geo documentary narrated by Alec Baldwin (for the US Version) and Sean Pertwee (for the British. Copying from Wikipedia:įeynman continued to investigate the lack of communication between NASA's management and its engineers, and was struck by management's claim that the risk of catastrophic malfunction on the shuttle was 1 in 100,000. Somewhat related: in the aftermath of the Challenger disaster, when the Rogers Commission investigated, they found some serious issues with how risk was assessed/communicated at NASA.